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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.