Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.
A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.
That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.
Official Outrage and Private Thoughts
Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”
These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.
A Network Unravels
For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.
However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”
Focus on the Main Front
Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.
“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.
A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.
“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.
“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”