How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.